Week 1 Reactions/Week 2 SEC Predictions

Well, the 2016 college football season is finally underway. For some, it started with a bang. For others…….well…not so much. One thing’s for sure: no matter who you pull for, there were some eye openers, some head scratchers, and some results that simply left you saying “Wait….what?” Given how reactive many get, it’s not surprising that there was some bouncing around in the polls this week; however, I think it’s time we take a breath. Here are a few things you shouldn’t overreact to after week one:

1. Ole Miss’s 2^nd half meltdown: Admittedly, this one was hard to watch. Ole Miss fans watched their Rebels build a commanding 28-6 lead over #4 Florida State with 3 minutes left in the first half only to look on helplessly as the Seminoles rattled off 33 unanswered points en route to a 45-34 win. It was ugly, it was gut-wrenching, it was sickening…..but it’s not the end of the world, Rebel fans. Let’s big picture this. Yes, it was a heartbreaking loss but the Rebels looked absolutely dominant over the #4 team in the country for the first half of the game. It took an absolute meltdown to lose this game. Chad Kelly was responsible for four turnovers during the Florida State comeback, a feat that likely won’t be repeated this season and, despite these four turnovers, the Rebels only lost by 11. On top of this, the Rebels still have everything in front of them. If the Rebels run the table, they can still make the CFP…..although Alabama may have something to say about that.
   
   
2. Wisconsin upsets LSU: First of all, if you’re an LSU fan that had real aspirations of an SEC and national championship, you should absolutely overreact. As a matter of fact, you should be in full-on panic mode. This is more of a reference to the Badgers jumping into the top 10 following their 16-14 upset of the Tigers after being unranked in the preseason polls. This was based on the fact that they beat a “top 5” team. In my opinion, LSU was never a top 5 team to begin with. With all due respect to the Tigers, a team with Cam Cameron calling the plays and Brandon Harris under center was never going to land in the Final Four and the end of the season. Most LSU faithful were adamant that Brandon Harris had made huge strides in the offseason. This quickly turned out to be false. Because of that, I don’t see LSU being more than an 8 or 9-win team this season. Sorry Badgers. You’re not a top 10 team.
   
   
3. Georgia’s win over North Carolina: I will admit, the jury is still out on Georgia. They may be great. They may not be, but I don’t think the Bulldogs’ win over UNC has any bearing on the answer to that. The Tar Heels have been a trendy pick as a dark horse in the ACC; however, they tend to underwhelm early in the season. Most notably, they dropped a week 1 game to South Carolina in 2015 before rattling off 11 straight wins en route to an ACC Championship Game appearance. That South Carolina team? They limped to a 3-9 record that finally drove Steve Spurrier into retirement mid-season. Citadel anyone? Now, I in no way see Georgia having a similar downward spiral this season but I think we should hold off on anointing them the new favorite to win the SEC East.
   
   
4. Auburn’s lackluster offense: This one is tricky. Yes, a Malzahn coached team should be able to put up more than 13 points in a game and it is troubling that the Tigers could not do that against Clemson. But again, let’s look at the big picture here. Auburn still looked like a legitimate threat to the rest of the SEC West in a 19-13 loss to national runner-up and second-ranked Clemson. Admittedly, Malzahn’s rent-a-QB system looked like a disaster and needs to be nixed. But that defense looks good enough to keep Auburn in nearly every game on their schedule.
   
   

Now, with week one in the rearview mirror, we can all exhale and look ahead to what is shaping up to be a so-so week two:

• Nicholls @ #9 Georgia: Georgia looked solid in week 1 against UNC. Nicholls will provide little, if any, challenge to Nick Chubb and the Bulldogs. They roll in this one.

           Georgia 52, Nicholls 6

• Prairie View A&M @ #20 Texas A&M: PVAMU has won 9 of their last 11 games, including a 4-point win over Texas Southern in their season opener. But they are outclassed in this one.

            Texas A&M 48, Prairie View A&M 7

• Kentucky @ Florida (-17): Florida opens as a 17-point favorite and is seeking its 30^th straight win over the Wildcats. This is a trendy upset pick, but the Wildcats haven’t won in Gainesville since 1979 and that won’t change this year. Florida wins but doesn’t cover.

            Florida 24, Kentucky 14

• Western Kentucky @ #1 Alabama (-28.5): The Tide open as 28.5-point favorites over the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has a high-powered offense but the Alabama defense is…well…the Alabama defense. After the week 1 display against USC, I don’t see Bama having any problems covering the spread.

            Alabama 49, Western Kentucky 17

• Wofford @ #19 Ole Miss: Ole Miss should come into this one fuming after the meltdown against FSU. Chad Kelly and Company get back on track with little problems.

            Ole Miss 59, Wofford 13

• Middle Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (-5.5): This is an absolute must-win for the Derek Mason’s team after squandering a 10-0 lead over South Carolina last week. Vandy’s offense is still trying to find its way but the defense should be able to make enough plays to put this one away. Vandy wins but doesn’t cover.

            Vanderbilt 17, Middle Tennessee 14

• South Carolina @ Mississippi State (-6.5): I’m a little surprised that Mississippi State opens as a favorite after the disastrous showing against South Alabama last week, but the game is in Starkville which may prove crucial. Despite the disappointing start to the season, I still think the Bulldogs have enough athletes to take care of business. The Bulldogs cover, but barely.                                  

            Mississippi State 24, South Carolina 17

• Arkansas @ #15 TCU (-7.5): In a week of mostly predictable matchups, this one has the potential to be a great game. In a classic contrasting of the styles type game, Arkansas will attempt to slow the game down and monetize the clock while TCU will try to air it out up and down the field. If Arkansas can’t come up with some stops, it could get ugly. On the other hand, if the Hogs’ defense can come up with some takeaways and keep the ball away from the TCU offense, things could get interesting. As much as I would like to go with my heart on this one, I just think the Horned Frogs have too much firepower. I think Arkansas comes to play and they are able to erase the bad memories of the near miss in the Louisiana Tech game; however, they come up short in Forth Worth.

            TCU 45, Arkansas 35

• Arkansas State @ Auburn (-19): Another one that has the potential to be interesting if the Arkansas State defense can take advantage of Auburn’s lack of a consistent QB. The Red Wolves will have to find cracks in what seems to be a really stout defense. I think they could find some, but not enough. This game is a lot closer than predicted and a little too close for comfort for Gus Malzahn and Company. Auburn wins but not by much.

            Auburn 27, Arkansas State 21

• Jacksonville State @ #21 LSU: The torches and pitchforks could be coming for Les Miles by season’s end but the result of this one won’t be a factor. Jacksonville State has proven to be a great FCS program and could keep it interesting for a half, but Fournette and LSU will inevitably take control. LSU wins comfortably.

           LSU 45, Jacksonville State 24

• Eastern Michigan @ Missouri (-25): Missouri took their lumps last week in Morgantown. This week, they will see a significant drop off in competition which should allow them to notch a much needed W. That being said, I’m not sure they have the offensive firepower to cover the spread.

           Missouri 31, Eastern Michigan 13

• Virginia Tech vs. #17 Tennessee (-11.5): The sometimes overhyped, nonetheless intriguing, Battle at Bristol. During the preseason, this seemed like a slam dunk for Tennessee. Now, I’m not so sure. After the usual preseason fanfare for Tennessee, Josh Dobbs didn’t appear to have made much improvement in 20-13 OT victory over Appalachian State. The Vols may bounce back and look like a completely new team against Virginia Tech but I just feel like the lack of a legitimate passing threat could finally cost the Volunteers in this one. I’ve got to pick one upset this week and this one feels like the prime candidate.

           Virginia Tech 27, Tennessee 24

Well there you have it, guys. This is the first entry in what I hope becomes a mainstay blog for college football. Let’s hear your thoughts and opinions.